2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories VOLUME 1 CHAPTER 3 UNCERTAINTIES

ESG Document

2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories VOLUME 1 CHAPTER 3 UNCERTAINTIES

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2006

This document delves into the complexities of managing uncertainties in greenhouse gas inventories, as outlined in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. It aims to provide comprehensive guidance on quantifying and reporting uncertainties to enhance the accuracy and reliability of national greenhouse gas inventories. The document addresses key questions such as the sources of uncertainties, methods for quantifying them, and strategies for reducing their impact on inventory results. Readers will gain an understanding of the various causes of uncertainty, including measurement errors, model uncertainties, and data gaps. The document explains how to quantify these uncertainties using statistical methods, expert judgment, and probability density functions. It also explores techniques for combining uncertainties from different sources to estimate the overall uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories and trends over time. By the end of the document, readers will be equipped with methodologies for assessing and managing uncertainties, ensuring that their greenhouse gas inventories are robust and credible. This knowledge is crucial for supporting effective climate policy and decision-making. The document's structured approach to uncertainty analysis, including practical examples and detailed equations, will help inventory compilers prioritize data collection efforts and improve the accuracy of their reports. This introduction provides a clear overview of the document's purpose and content, enabling readers to decide whether it meets their needs for understanding and managing uncertainties in greenhouse gas inventories.

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Table of Content (TOC)

3 UNCERTAINTIES

3.1 INTRODUCTION

3.1.1 Overview of uncertainty analysis
3.1.2 Overall structure of uncertainty analysis
3.1.3 Key concepts and terminology
3.1.4 Basis for uncertainty analysis
3.1.5 Causes of uncertainty
3.1.6 Reducing uncertainty
3.1.7 Implications of methodological choice

3.2 QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTIES

3.2.1 Sources of data and information

3.2.1.1 Uncertainties associated with models
3.2.1.2 Empirical data for sources and sinks and activity
3.2.1.3 Expert Judgement as a source of information

3.2.2 Techniques for quantifying uncertainties

3.2.2.1 Uncertainty in models
3.2.2.2 Statistical analysis of empirical data
3.2.2.3 Methods for encoding Expert Judgements
3.2.2.4 Good Practice Guidance for selecting probability density functions

3.2.3 Methods to combine uncertainties

3.2.3.1 Approach 1: propagation of error
3.2.3.2 Approach 2: Monte Carlo simulation
3.2.3.3 Hybrid combinations of Approaches 1 and 2
3.2.3.4 Comparison between Approaches
3.2.3.5 Guidance on choice of Approach

3.3 UNCERTAINTY AND TEMPORALAUTOCORRELATION
3.4 USE OF OTHER APPROPRIATE TECHNIQUES
3.5 REPORTING AND DOCUMENTATION
3.6 EXAMPLES
3.7 TECHNICAL BACKGROUND INFORMATION

3.7.1 Approach 1 variables and equations
3.7.2 Approach 1 – details of the equations for trend uncertainty
3.7.3 Dealing with large and asymmetric uncertainties in the results of Approach 1
3.7.4 Methodology for calculation of the contribution touncertainty

References

Keyword

uncertainty analysis greenhouse gas emissions emission factors activity data confidence interval probability density function systematic error random error expert judgement monte carlo simulation statistical analysis data collection quality assurance quality control variability accuracy precision bias emissions inventory uncertainty estimates temporal autocorrelation good practice guidance uncertainty reduction methodological choice key categories reporting and documentation uncertainty propagation hybrid approaches sensitivity analysis statistical random sampling error empirical data model uncertainty non-detects structural uncertainty data representativeness uncertainty in trends uncertainty in emissions uncertainty in removals

Country

India , European Union , Ireland , United States of America , United Kingdom , New Zealand , Canada , Singapore , Australia

Part of

2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Volume 1 General Guidance and Reporting